ANAHEIM — In a series tied at one win apiece, we’d say both teams could make a case for blowing their opportunity to be up 2-0.
But, as the series shifts to Anaheim for the first Stanley Cup Playoff games at The Pond in eight years, this is also a guarantee: Both the Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers can also see a world in which they could be down two games to none at this juncture of the series.
So let’s all agree: a 1-1 series seems just about right, all things considered. Nobody got dominated for six periods; nobody lost or won on bad luck or a goofy call.
But how did we get here? And where does it go from here?
Well, the Oilers had a plan. And then reality arrived.
The plan — In the run-up to the series, Edmonton’s leaders spoke of how they would endeavour to play a lower event, defensively responsible game. We reminded readers that back when the Oilers were the Ducks — a young, run n’ gun team of mostly 22-year-olds — opponents who forced those young Oilers to play a hard, grinding game with limited chances were the teams that gave Edmonton the most trouble.
The reality — When it comes to dictating how the game has been played through 120 minutes of hockey, Anaheim has had far more control than Edmonton. The series scoring — 9-8 for Anaheim — tells us these teams are playing a lot closer to the 5-4 hockey that Anaheim has played all season long, compared to the 3-2 game the Oilers talked about rolling out now that the playoffs have begun.
“You can have the best game plan in the world,” analyst Ray Ferraro told Sports 1440 in Edmonton Thursday. “But if the players aren’t executing, especially in the defensive zone, there is nothing you can do. The Oilers just need to decide they are done mismanaging the puck and will clamp down on the Ducks.
“Individually, the Oilers need to take the next step and commit defensively and make better passes.”
The plan — In the regular season, Edmonton’s power play ranked No. 1 in the NHL while Anaheim’s was 23rd. The Oilers power play has won them many a post-season game over the past five years, and there is no reason that should change now.
The reality — Through two games, the Ducks power play is tops in the NHL at 60 per cent, while Edmonton’s is in a five-way tie for dead last at 0 per cent. Add to that the shorthanded goal the Ducks scored in Game 2, and it’s 4-0 in special teams goals in favour of the Ducks. That’s a level of dominance that could easily have given Anaheim a 2-0 series lead.
Now, what are the odds that Edmonton’s power play — best in the NHL this season; best over the past five regular seasons; best over the past five playoffs (among teams with more than seven games played) — won’t figure it out? Probably about as good as the Ducks continuing to shut out Connor McDavid. Speaking of which…
The plan — McDavid is the best player in the world, averages 1.53 points per game in the playoffs (third best all-time behind Gretzky and Lemieux). He’ll turn in his usual three points every two games, and the rest of the Oilers will penetrate Anaheim’s weak defensive play, easily getting Edmonton to four goals (or more) per game.
The reality — Edmonton has scored four goals in each game — all at even strength — and it hasn’t been enough for a sweep. McDavid has posted zeroes across the board, the first line has one goal, and the power play is pointless. Yet, the rest of the Oilers have cashed four times in each game, which should be enough.
Both head coach Kris Knoblauch and McDavid said the injury McDavid suffered in Game 2 will not affect McDavid in Game 3. So, will the Ducks be able to keep a blanket on the Art Ross winner for the rest of this series?
If they do, hand them the crown. Because nobody else has done it.
The plan — This time around, the Oilers finally had a goalie in Connor Ingram who could win games when the team played less than outstanding. Dare to dream, they might even have a guy who could be better than the guy at the other end of the rink more often than not.
The reality — Among the 16 starters in these playoffs, Ingram’s .855 save percentage ranks 15th. Anaheim starter, Lukas Dostal (.887), ranks 12th. Ingram was excellent in Game 1 behind a porous Oilers defence, but he was average at best in Game 2. Dostal hasn’t been any better, really.
Which guy settles down and holds his opponent to two or less? Realistically, it will be the one whose team finds a defensive posture. Because this series has been nothing but loose defence and firewagon hockey thus far.