Calling the Toronto Blue Jays‘ start anything but a significant disappointment would be untethered from reality.
Following a World Series appearance, the club is 7-11 out of the gate with a minus-25 run differential that is tied for second-worst in the majors. Along with those rough results is an IL jam-packed with important players, from lineup staples George Springer, Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger to starters Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and José Berríos. One of the off-season’s most promising pickups — Cody Ponce — is likely done for the season. Last off-season’s top investment, Anthony Santander, is out for months and a question mark from a performance standpoint whenever he returns.
Optimism is hard to come by for the Blue Jays right now, but there is one area of the ballclub showing potential, maybe even enough to lead the club out of its current hole. Despite an ERA (4.48) that currently sits 24th in MLB, there are signs that this pitching staff could be in for a strong season.
The first is an expected ERA (3.81), which is significantly below the real number and ranks 12th leaguewide. If the Blue Jays had an awful defence, that might account for the discrepancy — but despite a few adventures from catchers playing in place of Kirk and a middling start to Kazuma Okamoto’s MLB career defensively, that description doesn’t fit Toronto. As of Friday, the team ranks 12th in the majors in Outs Above Average with plus-2.
Another expected number that looks kindly on Toronto’s pitching staff is xFIP, which corrects for teams that give up an irregular number of home runs on flyballs against. That’s true of the Blue Jays in 2026 with a HR/FB of 14.8 per cent, way higher than the MLB average (10.6 per cent). While xFIP doesn’t adjust for contact quality, it has a history of predicting future ERA better than ERA itself or regular FIP, and the Blue Jays have MLB’s second-best xFIP (3.43).
Toronto is even better at striking out the opposition. The team’s current K/9 (10.73) would rank second among the 3,105 team seasons since 1900, behind just the 2020 Cincinnati Reds. It’s probably not fair to expect historic greatness from here on out, but strikeout rate tends to be relevant in relatively small samples on the individual level, and the Blue Jays have multiple pitchers who appear to be on the way to excellent K rates.
While that’s the type of number that will change over the course of the season as the staff evolves, the team’s overall performance is likely to improve as 2026 continues. One of the reasons the Blue Jays’ pitching numbers are surprisingly unimpressive despite some of the underlying excellence is that they’ve gotten brutal performances from fill-in arms and depth guys. Many of the players dragging down their ERA are either off the roster already or don’t project to pitch much more as the team gets healthier.
To get a firmer grip on what that means, let’s divide Toronto’s staff into three categories:
1. Core pitchers who should be on the roster more or less in their current role if everyone is healthy: Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Rogers, Louis Varland, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, Spencer Miles (who could arguably sit in the next category but has Rule 5 status incentivizing the team to keep him).
2. Pitchers with ambiguous roles and/or some risk of falling off the roster as starters (and potentially Yimi Garcia) return. Eric Lauer, Patrick Corbin, Max Scherzer, Tommy Nance, Joe Mantiply.
3. Pitchers who are already off the roster and position-player pitchers: Brendon Little, Cody Ponce, Austin Voth, Lazaro Estrada, Josh Fleming, Tyler Heineman.
Here’s how those groups have fared in 2026:
It’s not surprising that the Blue Jays’ best pitchers have performed at a higher level than arms at the back of the roster, but the magnitude of the difference is important. It’s clear the team’s current numbers are dragged down by players who won’t make much impact on the rest of the season, obscuring the great work of Toronto’s top arms in overall team numbers.
Cease and Gausman currently rank second and third in the majors in K’s. The $210-million addition has a more balanced approach with his six-pitch repertoire, with four-seam fastball velocity that would be a career-best if it holds up (98.0 mph). Meanwhile, the opening-day starter is having remarkable success throwing splitters at a rate (45.6 per cent) much higher than he’s ever tried in a full season.
Late-game runs allowed in recent days have put a bit of a damper on enthusiasm about the Blue Jays bullpen, but Hoffman, Rogers, Fisher, Fluharty and Varland have still combined for a 1.81 ERA with more than a third of hitters striking out (33.5 per cent) and more than half of batted balls staying on the ground (55.4 per cent). Miles is the odd man out in this group, but even he’s shown promise for someone so inexperienced.
While it’s unfair to expect the core arms to keep up quite the level of performance they’ve managed so far, in cases like Cease and Gausman’s pitch mixes or Fluharty’s velocity gain (plus-1.4 m.p.h. on the cutter), there are noticeable changes that could continue to drive excellent results.
In contrast, the fact that the pitchers currently off the roster got shelled isn’t indicative of what this staff will do next, as notable as Ponce’s absence is. A Little return can’t be counted out, but can’t be counted on either. Although the downgrade from what he could provide at his best to a second bullpen lefty isn’t irrelevant, it’s a relatively marginal issue — particularly if Fluharty continues to thrive as the top option. Generally speaking, this group is hurting the team’s current numbers, but unlikely to affect its future.
How much the second group’s issues matter is up in the air for now. Lauer’s struggles may matter, but they are also mitigating factors like the illness he took into his second start and a misplayed routine flyball that sank his third. He could also be moved to relief, where he might fare better. Nance’s status as an out-of-options reliever who succeeded last year could give him rope. He’s the kind of low-pedigree reliever who’s as highly valued as he is productive, though, and it’s been a rough start. Mantiply could stick all year or get squeezed out by the demotion of a southpaw starter (or ascension of southpaw relief prospect Adam Macko). Scherzer and Corbin sit in a rotation that has plenty of talent coming back to it.
Right now, the health of the pitching staff should get better with returning contributors slotting in around the top arms. That isn’t a given. It’s possible the injury bug hits, and the team has to keep calling on its depth — depth that looks shaky right now. Even so, the pitchers the Blue Jays are planning to lean on the most are collectively off to a great start with promising trends on an individual level.
Almost everyone who’s struggling could soon be in a smaller role, or off the roster entirely — and some have already been jettisoned. With Yesavage and Berríos likely to return soon, that’s a good place to be. Of course, it would be an even better position if the team weren’t struggling mightily to score runs.