Last year’s first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs was relatively chalky. Only two lower-seeded teams — Edmonton and Florida — advanced to the next round (and ultimately the Stanley Cup Final).
As evidenced by the six new teams in this year’s field, there is an element of unpredictability that has been missing recently. Here are three lower-seeded teams that can pull off first-round upsets:
Opponent: Pittsburgh Penguins
Odds of winning series: 55.1 per cent
The eighth edition of the “Battle of Pennsylvania” is certainly the unlikeliest, as neither team was predicted to make the playoffs at the start of the season.
Pittsburgh, which is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2022, was an offensive powerhouse during the regular season, finishing third in scoring and fifth in expected goals. But Philadelphia, making its first post-season appearance since 2020, was one of the league’s top defensive teams this season, especially after the Olympic break. From Feb. 25 to April 16, the Flyers were third in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.69).
More specifically, the Flyers shut down their opponents off the rush following the Olympics, allowing the fewest rush scoring chances per 60 minutes (4.99) and fewest total rush goals (eight). The Penguins, meanwhile, generated the fourth-most rush chances per 60 minutes (7.03) and scored 71 rush goals in the regular season, tied for second most. That will go a long way in determining who wins this series.
There is also the question of whether Penguins goaltender Stuart Skinner can put his shaky playoff performances from his days in Edmonton behind him. Skinner made 16 quality starts in 27 tries (59.3 per cent) for the Penguins following the trade last December, but he posted a quality-start rate of just 46 per cent (23/50) for the Oilers in the playoffs.
Opponent: Vegas Golden Knights
Odds of winning series: 52.9 per cent
On the surface, it seems odd that the playoff-inexperienced Mammoth are favoured against the battle-tested Golden Knights, who are 7-0-1 since John Tortorella replaced Bruce Cassidy as head coach late last month.
Vegas has continued playing excellent defence under Tortorella, leading the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes since March 30. And now the Golden Knights are getting outstanding goaltending as well. Carter Hart is 6-0-0 with 5.3 goals saved above expected (GSAE) since Tortorella took over behind the bench. He has allowed 10 goals in his six starts (1.66 goals-against average).
Despite the recent improvement in net, however, the Golden Knights finished the regular season with the worst goaltending in the league based on GSAE. If Vegas’ goaltending reverts back to its pre-Tortorella form, then Utah has a path to win the series.
The Mammoth have a host of dynamic skaters, starting with captain Clayton Keller, whose 417 slot-driving plays (passes and carries) ranked sixth in the league during the regular season. Dylan Guenther led all forwards with 177 one-timer attempts, and he scored 17 of his team-high 40 goals in that fashion. And Nick Schmaltz is an incredibly effective net-front player, scoring 23 of his 33 goals this season from the inner slot, tied for sixth most in the league.
Defensively, the Mammoth are no slouches, either. Their defensive-zone denial rate of 49.9 per cent led the league, right ahead of the Golden Knights at 49 per cent.
Opponent: Carolina Hurricanes
Odds of winning series: 45 per cent
This is the Spider-Man pointing meme of first-round playoff series. Carolina and Ottawa share many similarities. For one, they are two of the top teams in the league at tilting the ice. The Hurricanes (54.4 per cent) and Senators (54 per cent) ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, in expected-goal share at five-on-five during the regular season. (In all situations, Ottawa finished second in expected goals against per 60 minutes, while Carolina finished fifth.)
The Hurricanes won at least one playoff series in each of coach Rod Brind’Amour’s first seven seasons and can become the third team in league history to extend that streak to eight by defeating the Senators. But despite leading the league in shot attempts on an annual basis, Carolina has had difficulty scoring at times in the post-season. In the Hurricanes’ 10 series wins under Brind’Amour, they have averaged 3.47 goals per game. But they have scored only 2.03 goals per game in the seven series they have lost.
Ottawa has what it takes defensively to frustrate Carolina. One key to a Senators upset will be the play of their shutdown line, which is anchored by Selke Trophy candidates Michael Amadio and Shane Pinto. The linemates generated 54.9 per cent of the expected goals at even strength during the regular season despite starting only 17.7 per cent of their shared shifts in the offensive zone. (Amadio and Pinto will surely get acquainted with the Hurricanes’ top line of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis.)
Senators goaltender Linus Ullmark is also entering the playoffs on a bit of a roll. He saved 5.8 goals above expected over his final six starts of the regular season.