There are a million ways to tease apart a playoff series. You can cherry-pick fancy stats (which I’ve done!), but the reality is, you’re guessing about what’s going to be most important. Will it come down to puck possession? Forecheck chances? Or maybe the penalty kill? Goaltending or toughness? Which ultimate strength perseveres over time?
There’s pressure, experience and a whole host of other factors that can impact the outcome, including injuries.
In the end, we can’t know for sure what will win the day. But as we dive into each playoff series — after the teams involved have played 82 games apiece — we’ve got an idea which trends are meaningful.
Using those, I’m here to offer what are flat-out opinions on what will happen in Round 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Below are my picks, with a paragraph or two on what influenced my thinking most.
Pick: Hurricanes in seven
Why: The vast majority of people have been picking Ottawa here, and I get that, they’ve been red hot. But I instinctively get my back up at the idea that the team that steadily built 113 points with solid underlying numbers is being treated as the underdog. I’m suspicious of the argument that the thing that submarined the Senators this season (goaltending) is somehow a solved problem come playoffs because Linus Ullmark had a good two weeks. I also have trouble buying that the things that lifted the Canes to the league’s third-best goal differential have gone away.
The Sens have had an awesome year as a team and can definitely win this series — I love their D and their depth up front — but Carolina is a handful, every line skates, their D makes plays and defends, and I just think it’s going to be super tight. Yes, the Canes have goaltending questions of their own and many think the Sens can out-grit them, but the Canes have ample playoff experience and home-ice advantage could matter. If the Sens win Round 1, all bets are off. But Round 1? It’s gonna be a nailbiter.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Why: Sometimes a group just isn’t ready. When I look at the Flyers, I see important pieces on the upswing that are still so young, like Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone and Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale. This is going to be great experience for them. In the Penguins, I still see Sid and Geno, still see Letang and Karlsson.
Of course, there’s so much more to it than the advantages of age and experience, as the Flyers have Travis Konecny and Travis Sanheim and a goalie, in Dan Vladar, who can be great, while the Pens have their own question marks (goaltending) and youth. But I just think to win, you need your most important people ready for the big moments, and I don’t think the Flyers are quite there yet.
Why: This pick should be taken as praise for a Tampa Bay team with proven stars who’ve been through it, and not a commentary on the Canadiens. I picked seven for a reason.
If it’s going to be close (and I think it is), there has to be some advantage in knowing what to expect, knowing what matters, and the Bolts have been through it over the past decade. Montreal has the chance to be New Tampa Bay, with lasting stars at every position, and this experience is gonna be a test on both sides.
Will one of Montreal’s young goalies catch fire and outplay Andrei Vasilevskiy? It’s possible. If Montreal wins this series, could they go on a deep run and win it all? Also possible.
I really believe in the core of talent the Habs have. But I’ve seen this Tampa team in the playoffs for years and I know how steady and solid they push. It just feels like with a few advantages — like their Vezina contender; and Hart contender, in Kucherov — they could be the group to sneak through to Round 2. Like Ottawa, though, I think if Montreal wins a round, they could be a problem past that.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins
Why: The Sabres’ success is built on a backend that can move the puck. They can skate, they’re long, and they just set the forwards up so well. But I also think the Sabres have a host of underrated players, from Josh Doan to Beck Malenstyn to Zach Benson.
Now, the Bruins are a particularly tough draw for the Sabres, because they’re just going to pound them (look out for Nikita Zadorov and Tanner Jeannot), and they’ve got elite goaltending and true game-breakers. But the Sabres runaway success hasn’t been an accident and, at the end of the day, I tend to believe talent prevails. The Sabres D alone brings so much that it’s just impossible for me to pick against them. So, provided they get good goaltending, they should find a way to score enough to squeak by the physical Bruins.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings
Why: Well now, let’s not overthink this. The Avs were the best team in the NHL when they traded for Nazem Kadri and Nicolas Roy, two centres who can operate in very different spaces for them. They’ve got offensive superstars covered; and Kadri can supplement that, but he also provides the other stylistic layers like grit and tenacity. Roy can alleviate some of the defensive burden to free everyone else up to be at their best, as he did as a third-line centre for Vegas when they won their Cup.
Maybe the Kings get a game; I suppose if everything broke their way, they could get two. If they got more than that, I’d be SHOCKED.
Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild
Why: I write this assuming Dallas gets Roope Hintz back at some point, because with him, the Stars just have an awful big pile of elite players. Mikko Rantanen is the beast of all playoff beasts, while Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, and Thomas Harley are all top-end talents.
As much as I love Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy and Quinn Hughes, they’re all going to have to be awesome, because I’m just not sure the Wild are strong enough down the middle. They’re loaded, and a great team, and it’s a shame this series has to happen in Round 1. But with both teams having capable goaltending and some great D, it could be at centre – Ryan Hartman, Joel Eriksson Ek, Danila Yurov, and Michael McCarron – where the Wild lose some ground. This is why Hintz’s return time matters, as Johnston, Hintz, Duchene and Faksa is an advantage. But without him, it’s pretty dead even.
Why: To me, the Oilers are a proven playoff team that’s getting back Zach Hyman and Leon Draisaitl at just the right time, so I won’t linger here. Edmonton has shored up their defending and are getting decent goaltending, but mostly they just create so damn much offensively they’re a nightmare.
The Ducks soft spot? They don’t defend particularly well, which doesn’t line up great. With a lot of big, offensive talent in their first NHL playoff series, I expect those defensive issues to get exposed, and for the very good Lukas Dostal to be handed a massive ask in Round 1.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth
Pick: Golden Knights in six
Why: If I believed that Vegas is who Vegas was by the numbers and standings this year, I’d be tempted to pick an upset here. But I don’t. This is a team that was loaded with talent (and expectations, as a result) and struggled to figure out how the puzzle pieces fit. But since John Tortorella showed up, it’s all started to click, and they suddenly look like who we expected them to be, which makes them scary.
Utah has unbelievably good underlying numbers — they show up in a cluster with Tampa Bay and Carolina among the league’s best by expected goals for and against — but they don’t have the experience or star power to get through when the going gets tough. By those aforementioned expected goals, nobody is stingier than Vegas, and with Carter Hart suddenly the starter and carrying a .930 in April, Utah’s in very tough.